Who do you see winning the MW GP this year?

[roadfighter3]

Last year, everyone pretty much knew either rampage or silva would win it all (cept dana who thought chuck would... oh well). But this year, thing's may not be so simple.

First, we have silva. Still the champ and undefeated for so many years (other than that highly disputed hunt decision), he doesnt show any signs of stopping. In fact he's getting even more brutal, faster, and stronger. Silva is probably the favorite to win

Then of course there's Rampage, who always has a great chance. He wasn't too impressive against Rua, but I have a feeling he will come back more prepared for the GP, since he won't have to wait a month just for his nose to heal. If not Silva, rampage is my pick to win it this time.

Arona I feel will make it very far. He has never shown much of a weakness (except making a mistake here and there, like right before getting slammowned), and although he is somewhat unproven, I think we all can see his massive potential. He might have beaten rampage if not for the slam. i think arona has a very good chance of breaking into the final 4, where anything can happen.

Lil Nog is another one of BTT's unproven but deadly weapons. He hasn't had too many big wins yet, but he just beat Allistair who is no chump and a top 15 fighter. Rumored to have slicker BJJ than his brother, he might present a threat to the title. Very slight chance of winning in face of some of the toughest challenges he will ever face, but don't count this guy out.

I read somewhere that Vitor was confirmed to enter. If he does, it will make things a lot more fun. Rematch with silva, anyone? I don't think Vitor has much of a shot at winning the title, especially with his recent trend, but you never know with this guy.

Then there are the darkhorses, Igor and Shogun. Igor's KO of takahashi, which i have seen about 700 times now, was ridiculous. His fist came out of nowhere. Takahashi didn't even know what hit him. If Igor brings that to the GP, you never know what he could do. Win the whole thing? Probably not. Top 4? Mayyyybe...

I must admit shogun impressed me most in pride 29. His destruction of kanehara was top notch, something mirko had a hard time doing. Anyone else here think that shogun's jump stomps are awesome as fuckin hell?? I don't know if I've ever seen a guy utilize the stomp so well against the butt scoot, not even Silva. Soccer kicks and stomps is what this guy is all about. I doubt he will win, but he could make a serious impact. I see him breaking into the top 10 after this GP.

Who are you guys pulling for to win? Who do you want to win, and who do you think will win? Other guys like Hendo also have a decent shot, but I wonder how they'll measure up against all the big names this tourney is signing.

[( o Y o )]

You know with Saku, Yoshida, Tamura and Nakamura in there the final 4 will all but definately include at least one of them, (on a side note, I'd love to see Tamura vs Hendo) and I actually expect Nakamura will go pretty far.

Shogun is cool but he made the mistake of calling out Rampage which will more than likely end his MWGP days then and there.'

Lil Nog is impressive but his lck of finishing skills will play against him, particularly if he goes to the final round where he'll need to fight two fights. He also lacks agression a little too I think.

For some reason, I don't see Silva making it all the way. In the last two years whats he had? 2 or 3 opperations and talked of injury after each match recently. Fighting on NYE, then April, June and Agust twice will take its tole on him as he doesn't have a decent amount of time to really heal well. I'd not be surprised to hear he drops out after round 2, or he may carry on but injured to the point it will effect the outcome. Just a feeling I have is all......but that said IF he is healthy he is the clear fav.

Igor is very interesting and will mix things up well. Rampage has already beaten him once though so it is not like he is indestructable at MW.

Vitor will be interesting, as would Titio, but I cannot see either of them going to the finals and winning two fights in one night.

Basically, it all depends on how they get matched up in the first round.

[Grant Ellis]

Igor is who I am rooting for.

He has some of the most tournament experience, proven cardio, the hardest right hand in the business, and is performing well at that weight.

His style matchup is bad for brawlers like Silva, and loopers like Chuck.
As for the grapplers, if Mark Kerr couldn't hold him down... then I doubt the others will.

Yes, Rampage slammed him and won, but Igor was winning that fight up until the slam in my opinion... and I am sure he would like a rematch now that he is rested and fresh. ( Moral: Don't go for that guillotine again, Igor! It will only end in pain! ;) )

My second pick is Wanderlei Silva. He is the defending champion and has never lost his appetite for destruction. He has beaten Rampage twice now. However, he was clearly dropped two or three times against Mark Hunt, and I am sure a fighter like Igor, who is refined and complete, would pose even more problems.

Third pick for the best shot is Dan Henderson. He is one of the strongest fighters in that he also has great tournament experience, he can matchup well against heavier fighters, and he basically has a heart the size of an asteroid belt.

Other fighters who will perform well if they are in it:
Nakamura, Yuki Kondo, Rogerio Nogueira, Ricardo Arona

Nakamura: Great heart, good chin, good technical ability on the ground.
Kondo: The essence of the Japanese warrior. Keen striking, lots of ring experience.
Rogerio: Undefeated in PRIDE, not afraid to strike, technician on the mat.
Arona: Best takedowns at that weight, dominant grappler, damaging strikes standing and on the ground..though not technical.

I personally see the final four as:
Igor, Silva, Hendo, and Kondo (if he's not in it, then Nakamura)

[Jules]

This is going the be the single best event in the history of MMA I think.

Igor is quite possibly the man to do it (although he is getting on a bit), though my money is on Hendo! Yeah yeah he didn't look too hot against Kondo but we all know how sick he was. Tamura vs Hendo, or a full Nakamura vs Hendo would be brilliant. As would Hendo vs Rampage, Silva, Lil Nog etc......

[roadfighter3]

kondo and naka are japan's best hopes. i dont see either of them making it to the final 4 though... there's just too much international talent in this one. there are like friggin 5 or 6 top 10 fighters that are enterring, pending on your opinion of a top 10 (unlike HW, LHW is almost impossible to rank IMO).

as much as i like tamura (im actually starting to like the guy more than sak. him and naka are becoming my two favorite japanese fighters in place of sakuraba and shoji), i dont think he can hang in there with a lot of the bigger names, like rampage, arona, silva, etc. like someone said, it really depends on the matchups.

if igor has worked on sub defense, he could very well make it to the finals and maybe even win.

if wanderlei silva wins again, he will permanently seal himself as the best fighter at 205 of all time.

if rampage wins, then a buncha other fighters will suddenly become christian overnight.

if arona wins, then ill make a thread on sherdog saying "i told you bastards he was good."

in all honesty those are the only guys i can imagine winning the thing.

[( o Y o )]

You think though in round one we have

Saku vs Tamura
Naku vs Ryan ( if he doesn't run)
Kondo vs ......someone
Yoshida vs weakest opponent....possibly Leko (and that is strategic, not because Yoshida doesn't have skills.

So in the next round of 8, it is very likely there will be 2 to 4 Japanese fighters. Pairing them against each other ensures the final round has at least one which is what PRIDE needs for this to get free to air sponsorship and coverage.

While I'm am rather attached to it, i'd bet my left nut there will be 1 Japanese fighter in the final 4, and if they make it that far the motivation will be enormous. I don't see Nakamura, Kondo, Saku, Yoshida or Tamu winning it, but they'll give their third opponent an tougher fight that Ogawa gave Fedor.

The other three will be made up of Hendo, Silva, Rampage, Arona or Lil Nog I guess and I would guess any JD in the second or third round Lil Nog is in, if he doesn't really dominate it it'll go aginst him as the final they'll want the most spectacular event ever to be ableto pay it off....they wont be wanting any JD's if they can help it.

[roadfighter3]

meh... i guess every tourney needs an ogawa

[( o Y o )]

LOL.....an unfortunate necessity to allow the whole thing to be paid for (and DSE to make $$$).

That said though, Kondo, Tamura, Nakamura, Yoshida and Saku are all real fighters that are at least serious about their sport.

[roadfighter3]

yeah, i agree. i mean, i like all those guys (kondo, naka, tamura, yoshida, saku). its just that they arent quite the caliber of silva, arona, rampage, hendo, and belfort. of all those guys id say kondo deserves to be int he top 4 the most (especially after showing his true potential against hendo and barnett), followed closely by yoshida. naka is still young and will continue to improve. plus a student shouldnt overtake his master this early anyway.

[Grant Ellis]

Well, Wanderlei considers Kondo and Sakuraba to be the same calibre as him.

He said in a Brazilian interview (me being the translator) that Kondo was starting to land consistent shots and he was thinking about switching gameplans if things didn't work out like they did.

He also said officially Sakuraba is the best challenge.
(Though he said the toughest fight of his career was Dan Henderson.)

I think all the Japanese fighters stand a good chance in the GP as long as they don't have to face Henderson, Silva, Rampage, or Arona in the first round.

I imagine Kondo will rematch Hendo in the first, that is a rematch that should happen.

[roadfighter3]

ina ll honesty though, i think silva is just trying to suck up a lil to the japanese fans. what he says and what happens int he ring are two different things. also i dont think sak was a better challenge than oh lets say rampage was, despite what silva says.

i think hendo will if they fight again win but i will pull for kondo because i felt he was robbed in the first fight.

[Grant Ellis]

ina ll honesty though, i think silva is just trying to suck up a lil to the japanese fans. what he says and what happens int he ring are two different things. also i dont think sak was a better challenge than oh lets say rampage was, despite what silva says.

i think hendo will if they fight again win but i will pull for kondo because i felt he was robbed in the first fight.

Well, he's KO'd Rampage twice now, so I guess we'll just have to let Silva decide, seeing how he's the one who has fought them, and we haven't.

Plus he said best challenge, not toughest fight. He thought Dan Henderson was tougher than Rampage Jackson.

This wasn't an interview for his Japanese fans, it was an interview in a Brazilian magazine, for the Brazilian public.

[Toffa]

Im pulling for Igor all the way, he is back baby :D I think he might have some trouble with guys like Arona or lil Nog, but he can wreck everyone and i predict him KOing most fighters, including Rampage

[Grant Ellis]

Im pulling for Igor all the way, he is back baby :D I think he might have some trouble with guys like Arona or lil Nog, but he can wreck everyone and i predict him KOing most fighters, including Rampage

Glad to see someone else pulling for Igor all the way.

He's only 31... and looking fresh, but guys like Arona can probably control him...but Igor is REALLY hard to keep down, especially if you aren't a 250+ pound wrestler.

[roadfighter3]

Glad to see someone else pulling for Igor all the way.

He's only 31... and looking fresh, but guys like Arona can probably control him...but Igor is REALLY hard to keep down, especially if you aren't a 250+ pound wrestler.


even kerr had his hands full trying to keep igor down. and then he gassed and got fucked up. twice.

[nycfreefight]

If you ever get a chance take a look at Igor fighting in events of the past. Like the IFC Kiev, I'm wondering how much did he weigh back then (1996).

Going down in weight for him was the way to go. I'm trying to figure out what 205 and under fighter would be able to control him in a fight.

I can see Igor doing very well in this tournament.

[Grant Ellis]

even kerr had his hands full trying to keep igor down. and then he gassed and got fucked up. twice.

The best chance at stopping Igor:

1) Pit him against a much larger opponent (not going to happen in the MW GP)
2) Switch his opponent at the last second.
3) Give him a really tough first fight, then pit him against a strong grappler in the finals. (Like what happened in the GP 2000)

If he fought say, Quinton Jackson... then had to fight Ricardo Arona... that could give Igor problems.

This tournament is going to depend a lot on the first round matchups I think.
It will be even better than the 2003 one, I'm sure.

[Grant Ellis]

If you ever get a chance take a look at Igor fighting in events of the past. Like the IFC Kiev, I'm wondering how much did he weigh back then (1996).

Going down in weight for him was the way to go. I'm trying to figure out what 205 and under fighter would be able to control him in a fight.

I can see Igor doing very well in this tournament.

Oh, definitly, I have Igor's appearance in IFC Kiev.

Even Bas Rutten, while he was King of Pancrase, said "That Igor guy would be a very tough opponent"...and Igor was only at like 205 back then.

[Amron]

Silva - although i hope he gets KTFOed as soon as possible - still has veryvery good chances

Arona is a killer, his kicks have gotten extreeeeeeeemly hardcore - especially for a guy that has a wrestlingbackground. his groundgame: nocomment. weakness: headmovement, handwork - parts of his standupgame...but who knows, he may have improved since the last time.

Quinton is still the most capable one near Silva in my eyes. He wasnt in AllStar-form vs Ninja, but i have to say, after watching the fight, he won. Ninja was attacking with standup-combos that had zero effect, no precision-strikes at all. Meanwhile Rampage scored with knees on the ground, had more effective slams, had a few good punch-combo and got out of both attempts when Ninja started a sub, i really cant understand why lots of people thought Ninja won, especially in the Damage-appartment, the best he deserved in my eyes would have been a draw.

Did i mention Arona?...

[Toffa]

Sometimes I need to go back through the replays a few times to get a better idea of who won, one of Ninja's high kicks partially connected and sometime during the fight Rampage took a BIG shin to the neck, i only noticed it on the third time.

Im not saying he won though, it could have gone either way IMO.

[Grant Ellis]

Sometimes I need to go back through the replays a few times to get a better idea of who won, one of Ninja's high kicks partially connected and sometime during the fight Rampage took a BIG shin to the neck, i only noticed it on the third time.

Im not saying he won though, it could have gone either way IMO.

Right, in my opinion I think it matters at what points during the fight you blink.

If I had to call it anyway, I would call it a draw.
If I had to pick a winner, I would pick Ninja, but that was only on the first viewing. I thought Ninja fought better than Rampage. It is very tough to score a fight like that, and even harder to pick a winner. They both fought very well and did plenty of good things.

If I watched it again I might pick Rampage as the winner.
A third time, Ninja.

I might have to Detail Analysis this fight.
We'll see.

[roadfighter3]

i just saw the whole rogerio/overeem fight and i must say grant ellis was right -- this guy is the real shit. i was impressed by the way he took whatever allistair dished out, defending and countering and pushing the fight forward. this gp is gonna be fucking interesting as hell

[mata-leao]

my pick for this years mw gp: ricardo 'the brazilian tiger' arona

he's been significantly improving each and everytime he gets into the ring. he's a lot more agressive in his matches...he has the best takedowns in his weightclass imo...strikes a lot...always gets good positioning...and makes a lot more sub attempts than he used to. hands down my favorite ground technician in the middleweight class.

his only big weakness is his stand-up striking. his fighting stance is awkward and his chin is usually up too high...but even his stand-up striking has been improving each and every time. he's developed a killer low kick.

i just really feel that his style and brute strength is enough to win it all.

if the final match turns out to be arona vs silva...i believe arona could take him via submission, but more likely by decision. arona doesn't stand a chance against silva standing up but i think he will definitely be able to take silva down, keep him down, and totally dominate him there.

[Bangalter]

I hope that Igor wins it all!

And I think he will if he doesn't have to face Rampage/Tito/Couture, let's hope Wanderlei takes out whoever of them are present!

And BTW. Wanderlei's toughest fight by far is against Arthur Mariano!
(But maybe you guys where talking about Wand's Pride career......)

[Grant Ellis]

I hope that Igor wins it all!

And I think he will if he doesn't have to face Rampage/Tito/Couture, let's hope Wanderlei takes out whoever of them are present!

And BTW. Wanderlei's toughest fight by far is against Arthur Mariano!
(But maybe you guys where talking about Wand's Pride career......)

I was talking about what Wanderlei said in an interview last year.

He said Dan Henderson was his toughest opponent (because he could only see out of one eye)

[Bangalter]

I was talking about what Wanderlei said in an interview last year.

He said Dan Henderson was his toughest opponent (because he could only see out of one eye)

Yes I know Grant ;)

But I think Wand meant his pride career...
Because if you see the Arthur Mariano fight (which silva loses due to a cut) you'll agree it was tougher.

Wands face was all torn up, and he could only see with one eye plus it was a bare knuckles fight.

But what do I know! I was just impressed with Silva for not quitting that fight...

[mpt0069]

IGOR VOV
IGOR VOV
IGOR VOV
IGOR VOV
IGOR VOV

[AKA]

Vov hasnt any chance to win imo...KO power isnt enough;)
I bet on Wand, lil nog and Hendo:)
Go Hendo!

[Grant Ellis]

Yes I know Grant ;)

But I think Wand meant his pride career...
Because if you see the Arthur Mariano fight (which silva loses due to a cut) you'll agree it was tougher.

Wands face was all torn up, and he could only see with one eye plus it was a bare knuckles fight.

But what do I know! I was just impressed with Silva for not quitting that fight...

Silva has had so many fights they all probably just blur together.

The man's heart cannot be questioned.

[Bangalter]

The man's heart cannot be questioned.

Agreed.

[Toffa]

Vov hasnt any chance to win imo...KO power isnt enough;)
I bet on Wand, lil nog and Hendo:)
Go Hendo!

Blah come on, he has alot more than just knockout power. He has by far the best standup of the LHW division (imo anyway), and thats not just from KO power but from his speed and combinations. He is also very experienced and hard to keep down, and has a few submissions victories including a heelhook over Overeem.

[AKA]

Blah come on, he has alot more than just knockout power. He has by far the best standup of the LHW division (imo anyway), and thats not just from KO power but from his speed and combinations. He is also very experienced and hard to keep down, and has a few submissions victories including a heelhook over Overeem.
It wasnt fighter bashing! I love vov, but I cant see him win coz he isnt a very good fighter in the ground game (btw his defence is good)

lol at the heelhook vs overeem ;)

[RobinG]

I dont think Igor will win the tournament, I do think however that he will surprise us :)

[mata-leao]

I dont think Igor will win the tournament, I do think however that he will surprise us :)

i agree that igor might surprise us all. his biggest weakness is his ground game but i bet he's been working on his ground game a lot more...plus w/ his smaller build, he'll move much better on the ground.

edit: i wonder if were gonna see paulo filho...sakakibara confirmed him to be in a qualifying match awhile ago but he hasn't been mentioned since.

[nycfreefight]

The more I look at the line up the more I tend to lean towards the more experienced and proven tournament fighters such as Silva and Vovchanchyn.
Since Igor's move down in weight, there is not a fighter at 205 and below who can punch with him. He's been fighting the bigger stronger heavyweights for the last few years. Silva on the other hand, has been walking through the same weight division taking on all comers and proving time and time again he deserves to be at the top.