My Final Conflict Absolute tourny analysis

[Bangalter]

Im the the of guy who can't sleep at night thinking about Pride fights.

First of all I'm a big Mirko fan but I'll try to keep this objective.

Mirko vs Wanderlei

First I'd like to point out what I think is each fighters strong points vs the opponent.

Mirko:

*technical striker
*stronger
*takedown defence
*heavier

Wanderlei:

*aggressive
*not afraid and can take a good shot, in short: the heart of a warrior!
*cardio
*groundgame

How I think the fight will turn out:

I think the first round will start with both fighters being very careful, feeling eachother out. I think Mirko will throw a pair of kicks to Wands ribs and maybe a head kick or two. Also some straight rights. Mirko is always a slow starter.

Wanderlei will start carefully but will come in with flurries of punches and clinch attempts, however I don't think it will go to the ground in the first round. Mirko is to strong fresh and has very good takedown defence.

Second round will be all Wand except for single kick or right straigt attempts by Mirko. Wand might be able to take Mirko down once but he will not be able to do anything there.

Conclusion: Wanderlei by UD maybe split. :(

Nog vs Barnett:

Nog:

*chin
*submissions
*cardio
*standup (boxing)

Barnett:

*stronger
*wrestling

How I think the fight will turn out:

I think Barnett will try to fight Nog standing in the begining and I feel both fighters are pretty close standing. Nog is crisper and more technical but Barnett has more power and like to slug it out.
After a few minutes I think Barnett have had enough of boxing and will take Nog down and try to dominate with GnP, however this will not go very well and they will go to their feet again.

In round two I see Barnett trying to take Nog down more desperately but failing, and Nog dominating the standup.

Conclusion: Nog by UD.

Final:

I think both fighters will have had equally tough semis but Wand will be somewhat fresher. However I see Nog controlling both the standup and ground due to his size,strenght and chin.

Conclusion: Nog by UD, maybe sub late in the second round.

Winner: Nog

There is my analysis guys, feel free to rip it apart at will! :)

[migs]

I agree with your analysis of the fighters mostly. I would just add that Mirko is significantly bigger than Wand and that will also help him on the ground a lot. Weightwise might be only a 10 or 20 lbs at fight time but the raw power and structure of Mirko is much bigger than Wand. I agree Wand difinitely has the cardio and if the fight goes long, Wand could start to take over. I say it ends with Mirko by KO round 1 or Wand by decision after taking over later in the fight.

As for Nog v Josh, I am not so sure that Nog has better standup. I agree it is more technical like a trained boxer but he doesn't have the power and the speed to be really dangerous to a HW with good hands. I think Josh can take a lot of shots from Nog before he gets rattled. We know Nog can take shots too so...it'll be interesting. I also think Josh will take down Nog at will cause Nog seems to have minimal wrestling ability. I think if Nog wins, it'll be a gift decision or by submission. Josh has subs but not in the same league as Nog. I agree with you, Nog by sub 2nd round or JD.

[Bangalter]

Thanks for your comments.

Its fighting so I might be all wrong, but it would be nice to be right for once.
Even though I hope I'm wrong and Mirko wins it all. ;)

[Kinera]

That is pretty much exactly what I expect. Good job!

[migo]

Wand has the wrong type of takedowns to get Mirko down, it'll look like Wand x Hunt except all standup.

Barnett x Nogueira will just be a very good fight, that's all I know.

[Bangalter]

Wand has the wrong type of takedowns to get Mirko down, it'll look like Wand x Hunt except all standup.

Yeah, but I think Wand will put even more pressure on Mirko than Hunt did since he has waay better cardio and is more aggressive.

On the other hand Wand doesn't have the chin Hunt has so it *could* be dangerous for him. But since Wand have almost never been KO'd I think he'll be ok.

[Long Fist]

Wanderlei's chance is to push forward aggressively and go for a knockdown shot followed by a brutal beating but from the clinch and take down I expect Mirko to land on top.

[derUbermensch]

Yeah, but I think Wand will put even more pressure on Mirko than Hunt did since he has waay better cardio and is more aggressive.

On the other hand Wand doesn't have the chin Hunt has so it *could* be dangerous for him. But since Wand have almost never been KO'd I think he'll be ok.

Wand usually never comes all out against opponents he knows not to run up on

[Bangalter]

Wand usually never comes all out against opponents he knows not to run up on

Well not right away but in the first Mirko vs Wand fight he keeps the pressure on with flurries which Mirko backs out of.

And this time the winner have to fight twice in one night so I think Wand will be even more aggressive this time to try to finish early (Mirko too but he has the counter style).

[( o Y o )]

"In round two I see Barnett trying to take Nog down more desperately but failing, and Nog dominating the standup."

That surprises me as Nog has pretty poor TDD and Josh has good skills, size and strength.

The key to this fight IMO will be the agression. Like Silva is not that much better than many of the guys he fights, but he is just so in their face he eventually breaks them and lands something. If Josh can keep up the intensity with which he fought Alec for the full 2 rounds, I think he might just earn enough points to win it.

[bbbmarc]

i think a quite opposite than most of you, f.e. mirko vs silva - my opinion is that mirko will have advantage on the ground cause he's physically much stronger than silva and lately very comfortable on the groun, and silva will have advantage in stand-up cause he's more agressive striker than mirko whos counterstriker, specially if mirko would have problems with his left leg

nog vs barnett
i can see only one outcome in this fight: nog via decision, both have too much ground skills to be submited, and not ko-power to finish the other one with strikes, and due better cardio nog will start to dominate in this fight after probably 3 or 4 minutes, barnett only chance is to finish nog asap, but somehow i don't think that something like that will happen

[Bangalter]

"In round two I see Barnett trying to take Nog down more desperately but failing, and Nog dominating the standup."

That surprises me as Nog has pretty poor TDD and Josh has good skills, size and strength.

What I meant was that in the first round Barnett will get Nog down but will be unable to do anything with it.

In the second I feel Nog will be ahead on the judges scorecards and Barnett will more or less have abandoned To go for the KO win and therefore go "desperately" for takedowns. Which even Nog should be able to defend when It's obvious what Barnetts gameplans is.

[Bangalter]

i think a quite opposite than most of you, f.e. mirko vs silva - my opinion is that mirko will have advantage on the ground cause he's physically much stronger than silva and lately very comfortable on the groun, and silva will have advantage in stand-up cause he's more agressive striker than mirko whos counterstriker, specially if mirko would have problems with his left leg

Mirko is stronger when fresh yes and has good defensive groundgame. But the only submission Mirko can catch Wand in is standing guillotine IMO.
And I feel that Wand is still better offensive on the ground.

[Faster]

Mirko is stronger when fresh yes and has good defensive groundgame. But the only submission Mirko can catch Wand in is standing guillotine IMO.
And I feel that Wand is still better offensive on the ground.

After the first 5-minutes of a fight, Mirko's sprawl diminishes greatly as his endurance subsides. The longer the fight lasts the more it works into Wandy's favor. We all know Wandy likes to push the pace and pressure his opponent, while Mirko is quite the opposite. I imagine Mirko taking out Wandy sometime early in the first round or Wandy winning by decision or even TKO if the fight makes it past the first round.

Can't wait for this fight!

[migo]

Wandy doesn't go for double legs though, he goes for a clinch and trip. Mirko just has to stick his butt out into the ropes and crossface Wandy and wait for him to let up or the ref to break it.

[Bangalter]

I'm so happy even though my analysis was completely off!

WAR Mirko! and happy birthday!

[migs]

Yeah Wand got caught early and it took some speed away for sure. He just couldn't get in there and Mirko played his game just perfect.

It'll be funny to go to Sherdog...everyone will be calling Wand a bum, whereas if he had been afraid to try the HWs his legend would be growing. Chuck has a good blueprint to fight Wand with now cause Chuck has a similar size and reach advantage.

[Bangalter]

Yeah Wand got caught early and it took some speed away for sure. He just couldn't get in there and Mirko played his game just perfect.

It'll be funny to go to Sherdog...everyone will be calling Wand a bum, whereas if he had been afraid to try the HWs his legend would be growing. Chuck has a good blueprint to fight Wand with now cause Chuck has a similar size and reach advantage.

It's tiresome to read some of the posts at sherdog I agree.

I still rank Wanderlei as the nr.1 LHW fighter on the planet, Mirko just had his number. I bet we'll se a rematch within a year or two.

Had Wand connected with a punch or two during his flurries it might have ended differently.