Bushido 11 Odds...

[Faster]

Bushido 11 - Odds up @ Pinnaclesports

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Hayato Sakurai -1000
Olaf Alfonso +800

Tatsuya Kawajiri -900
Charles Bennett +700

Marcus Aurelio -155
Mitsuhiro Ishida +145

Gegard Mousasi -250
Makoto Takimoto +230

Joey Villasenor -120
Ryo Chonan +110

Akihiro Gono -250
Hector Lombard +230

Phil Baroni -330
Kazuo Misaki +300

Murilo Rua -160
Denis Kang +150

Murilo Bustamante -260
Amar Suloev +240
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Bet the house on Olaf!

[Faster]

Interesting picks IMO.....

-Chonan over Joey
-Lombard over Gono.....Gono should win but 2.5 to 1 odds?
-Takimoto over Mousasi
-Misaki over Baroni
-Kang vs Ninja.....fight is a toss up IMO.

[( o Y o )]

Olaf, Bennett and Lombard could all cause an upset the way things have gone this year. Kang too. Hell, even Taki, Chonan and Ishida.

[Shiruba]

Lombard, Ishida, Kang, Misaki and Ishida. Suloev could also very well suprise.

[mugen67]

Olaf, Bennett and Lombard could all cause an upset the way things have gone this year. Kang too. Hell, even Taki, Chonan and Ishida.


No love for Misaki, huh? You give him less of a chance than Olaf? I might put a little on Misaki, in a lot of ways, he's a better fighter than Baroni (he's very well rounded), but on the other hand it is a bad match up for him stylistically. That said, I think he has a much better chance than Olaf because he's more or less a top level fighter and coming off a close fight against Henderson. If he can survive early and take the fight into the later minutes, he has a good chance of pulling the upset. Of course, the fight is shorter than a regular Pride fight (they should probably change this at some point) so conditioning might not play into it as much.

I really don't think Olaf has much a chance at all of winning. I know Sakurai sometimes gets lazy and can have lackluster showings, but I think even lazy Sakurai shoud beat Olaf. He is coming off a brutal loss to Gomi so who knows if that will effect him, he's been known for having an iron chin his whole career, but if you get KOed once, it tends to happen more after that. Still I don't think Olaf has the tools to exploit that.

I like Gono, but will bet on Lombard this time. Gono has trouble with guys that hit hard and are aggressive, and from what I've seen of Lombard, he fits the bill. Lombard seems to have a nice straight left which is a really tough punch to defend for any fighter (see Manny Pacquiao), and Gono leaves his hands down (Roy Jones influence). Gono got thrown around by the Korean judoka at the last Bushido, and there's a good chance of that happening here as well. Gono's crafty and experienced, but I don't see him subbing this guy from his back. That said, if Gono takes it later into the fight, this guy might get sloppy and give Gono (the counterstriker) an opportunity for a KO or top position where he might be able to do some damage. With these odds, Lombard seems like a good bet.

Aurelio's gonna have a lot of size on Ishida, people talk about how big Gomi is, Aurelio was probably bigger in that fight, whereas Ishida is kind of a small 153 lb fighter (let alone 160). I think Aurelio probably has better standup than Ishida, and might be able to get the takedowns despite Ishida's wrestling base. I see this fight looking a lot like Ishida vs. Shaolin.

Kang might be a decent bet, but he seems to have a somewhat suspect chin (Kaoklai punch...). Ninja might not have a lot of punching power (might still be enough depending on Kang), but he has KO power with knees, kicks, etc. I think Kang might be able to outstrike Ninja if he doesn't get caught and he's pretty damn good on the ground aswell. It may come down to who gets the takedowns. At these odds, I think Kang's a pretty good bet.

Krazy Horse has a punchers chance, Kawajiri might stand for a little while before he attempts a takedown...of course, he's outclassed, hell, he's been dominated by people who aren't on Kawajiri's level. That said, styles make fights and Krazy Horse can KO him if he gets really lucky.

[( o Y o )]

No love for Misaki, huh? You give him less of a chance than Olaf? I might put a little on Misaki, in a lot of ways, he's a better fighter than Baroni (he's very well rounded), but on the other hand it is a bad match up for him stylistically. That said, I think he has a much better chance than Olaf because he's more or less a top level fighter and coming off a close fight against Henderson. If he can survive early and take the fight into the later minutes, he has a good chance of pulling the upset. Of course, the fight is shorter than a regular Pride fight (they should probably change this at some point) so conditioning might not play into it as much.

I really don't think Olaf has much a chance at all of winning. I know Sakurai sometimes gets lazy and can have lackluster showings, but I think even lazy Sakurai shoud beat Olaf. He is coming off a brutal loss to Gomi so who knows if that will effect him, he's been known for having an iron chin his whole career, but if you get KOed once, it tends to happen more after that. Still I don't think Olaf has the tools to exploit that.

I agree Misaki is a good fighter and probably has a slightly better chance than Olaf of seriously winning, but +800 makes Olaf just that touch more interesting. Factoring in Sakurai recently getting his orbital broken (1 month ago) and Baroni's recent run of good luck, I'd just be more inclined to put a small amount on Olaf than double that amount on Misaki for the same payout.

[Grant Ellis]

I smell a lot of upsets.

[Lb-kid]

Hopefuly upsets will happen Grant Ellis and hopefully I'll chose the right ones to cash in on them!

Faster, you seem to be on of them regular sports betters like me. Nice thread, I love to talk about lines, odds and shit before the fights. Didn't you lose all bets on this last UFC? Not sure but I think I read your picks here before.

From the ones you presented as interesting lines I think the Chonan/Villasenor, Misaki/Baroni and Kang/Ninja fights are the ones to take a closer look. I'm pretty sure that Ninja wins his fight and I see Chonan winning also. In my picks in the other thread I chose Misaki over Baroni; Misaki has the experience, is tough and well-rounded and has never been knocked out. All his losses are decisions except once when he broke his arm. On the other hand Baroni fought pretty inconsistently the last years and you never know which Baroni will show up. Misaki comes from a loss against Henderson while Baroni had a quick victory over an overhelmed Kondo. This all leads me to believe that Misaki will pull out the win but still it's risky and you never know.

After looking at the lines and giving it some thought here are my picks/bets:

I'll go with Aurelio and Ninja on the favourites side. Both have the best lines out of all favourites besides Villasenor whom I expect to lose and I have enough confidence in them to win their fights.

Out of the underdogs I chose Chonan and Suloev, especially Suloev at 3.42 seems interesting enough and I'm a little surprised that they rate Busta as a fave that clearly. Misaki at 3.69 has an even higher line but it's way too risky (or stupid :-) to bet on more than 2 underdogs and I had to make a decision, so I chose Suloev over Misaki. But don't be surprised when it goes the other way round. But at least it makes watching them bouts so much more exciting!

And I'll do the stupid thing and bet on another underdog. Olaf at 8.30 (!) is just too much of a temptation not to try my luck. Just a small 20 Euros bet, so it would still be 146 Euros to net if Olaf makes the upset happen!

[mugen67]

I agree Misaki is a good fighter and probably has a slightly better chance than Olaf of seriously winning, but +800 makes Olaf just that touch more interesting. Factoring in Sakurai recently getting his orbital broken (1 month ago) and Baroni's recent run of good luck, I'd just be more inclined to put a small amount on Olaf than double that amount on Misaki for the same payout.


I don't know, the way I see it, Misaki is twice the fighter Olaf is, and Mach is a much better fighter than Baroni. On paper, Baroni vs. Misaki should be a competitive fight, and on paper Mach should dominate Olaf in every facet of the game. Of course styles make fights and Misaki usually likes to brawl a little and that might be a bad idea against Baroni, but if a guy like Pete Sell (granted Phil looked terrible in that fight and seems to have gotten his act together since then) or even Minowa can beat Baroni, I don't see why it's so far fetched that Misaki could beat him (especially if he has a smart gameplan).

Aside from a freak injury/cut, I don't see how Olaf would beat Mach. If anything, it would probably be better to bet on Krazy Horse because it seems likely that Kawajiri will trade a little with him at the beginning of the fight and Krazy Horse does hit hard...

[Faster]

Faster, you seem to be on of them regular sports betters like me. Nice thread, I love to talk about lines, odds and shit before the fights. Didn't you lose all bets on this last UFC? Not sure but I think I read your picks here before.....

Yes I did! :doh:

[( o Y o )]

^ ouch!

I have often wondered if a sub-forum for betting would be a good idea here.

[( o Y o )]

I don't know, the way I see it, Misaki is twice the fighter Olaf is, and Mach is a much better fighter than Baroni. On paper, Baroni vs. Misaki should be a competitive fight, and on paper Mach should dominate Olaf in every facet of the game. Of course styles make fights and Misaki usually likes to brawl a little and that might be a bad idea against Baroni, but if a guy like Pete Sell (granted Phil looked terrible in that fight and seems to have gotten his act together since then) or even Minowa can beat Baroni, I don't see why it's so far fetched that Misaki could beat him (especially if he has a smart gameplan).

Aside from a freak injury/cut, I don't see how Olaf would beat Mach. If anything, it would probably be better to bet on Krazy Horse because it seems likely that Kawajiri will trade a little with him at the beginning of the fight and Krazy Horse does hit hard...

Actually, in principle I agree with you completely. News out of Japan that Mach has been fitted with a face proection mask so his orbital does make this bet sond even sweeter though as a) there is obviously still damage there and b) I would think the mask would cause cuts pretty easily if hit.

[Lb-kid]

^ ouch!

I have often wondered if a sub-forum for betting would be a good idea here.

oYo, basically that would be a great idea imo, but there are way too little members around to make sure the sub-forum would be an active one and a good frequented too. Even the most popular threads on this forum have only few regular members discussing so additional sub-forums of any kind would not make much sense I think.

Don't get me wrong please, Kakutougi Forum is a great and classy forum - small but powerful - with very competent and respectful members and I like posting and participating here very much. I say leave the gossip, rumours, gay talk and childish insults to the masses at Sherdog forums while we here enjoy our small but nice community.

Out of curiosity: Who is a regular MMA (or sports generally) better out of you guys?

[Baggen]

Out of curiosity: Who is a regular MMA (or sports generally) better out of you guys?

I am. Bet on most Pride events and about 1/3-1/2 of the ufc:s roughly.

[Lb-kid]

What are your picks then Baggen? Did you already place your bets?

And what about others? C'mon, there must be some more gamblers around...

[seese]

What are your picks then Baggen? Did you already place your bets?

And what about others? C'mon, there must be some more gamblers around...

Im looking at a small upset bet on olaf - those odds are too good. As I had both Sergei aswell as Shogun winners on two different multiples Im not counting out anyone. Of course I dont expect Olaf to win but still Mach might get injured or just perform really bad.

Thats also why I put another small bet against Baroni. Hes got heavy hands and an ok cardio, but I can see Misaki handle him just like Minowa did in their 2nd fight. Another minor upset bet is Suloev over Bustamente - eventhough Busta had a good year last year but has been knocked out and hes not getting younger.

Rua and Villasenor are my "safe" ones. Basically because Rua is a very good fighter and it would take a lot to knock him out or submit him, I dont think Kang is the man to do it. Villasenor got my vote more because of Chonans poor performances than my knowledge of Villesenor. But from what ive seen and read I think Villasenor will pull it off.

So if it works out and Im lucky I should win a smaller amount.
If Im not so good at this Im gonna lose some money.
If Im realy lucky it will work out super.

Smallest bet on Olaf. (Small bet compared to other bets)
Smaller bet on "upsets" like Suloev and Misaki.
Medium bet on Rua and Villasenor.

[Lb-kid]

Yeah I do have a similar system. Usually I calculate them bets so that if I lose all underdog picks but win my fave bets I'll come out even or this time it would be slightly in the red. If I just pick one underdog bet right plus the favourites I'll be content and in the plus already. Don't want to think even about the "lucky" option. :-)

We had this discussion before once remember seese? I tried this and that system if you can even call it as such but went back to calculating them bets about getting even if the worst case scenario should happen. Overall I'm slightly in the red at this time.
Basically I'm always prepared to lose all my betting money. I'm not gambling money away which I can't afford like some people do. And I do it all for the fun of it. You know what I mean, if you have like 100 bucks or more placed on some fighter it's so much more exciting to watch the bout and root for your guy.

And you're right regarding Olaf, the line is too good not to try for a small bet. Nobody expects him to win but everything can happen in a fight. A cut, injury stoppage, lucky punch etc.

Go Olaf baby!

[seese]

Yeah I do have a similar system. Usually I calculate them bets so that if I lose all underdog picks but win my fave bets I'll come out even or this time it would be slightly in the red. If I just pick one underdog bet right plus the favourites I'll be content and in the plus already. Don't want to think even about the "lucky" option. :-)

We had this discussion before once remember seese? I tried this and that system if you can even call it as such but went back to calculating them bets about getting even if the worst case scenario should happen. Overall I'm slightly in the red at this time.
Basically I'm always prepared to lose all my betting money. I'm not gambling money away which I can't afford like some people do. And I do it all for the fun of it. You know what I mean, if you have like 100 bucks or more placed on some fighter it's so much more exciting to watch the bout and root for your guy.

And you're right regarding Olaf, the line is too good not to try for a small bet. Nobody expects him to win but everything can happen in a fight. A cut, injury stoppage, lucky punch etc.

Go Olaf baby!

I agree, and Im fully aware that Im taking a big chance by going for both Suloev aswell as Misaki - the both have a 40% chance of winning (imo) so the most likely scenario is that none of them wins. And then I expect Olaf to lose so that will mean Im (I use figured numbers for the easiness) not in a good fashion.
Lets say we have 100 dollars I would put them like this -

10 on Olaf -> wins 85
15 on Misaki -> wins 45
15 on Suloev -> wins 45

40$ wins 175$

These three above are all underdogs and not expected to win (if one of them do win youve made at least a 5$ profit).

30$ on Rua -> wins 25$
30$ on Villasenor -> wins 20$

60$ to win 45$ = +5$ if my above picks are all wrong

Of course, if all bets are wrong I do lose some money - but as you say, this is not my job and Im not dependent of winning and only do it because its fun (of course I want to win though =). So yes - basically I need to win my both "safe" fights in order to cover up for the more "upset" fights.

If all bets go my way a 100$ bet would give a 220$ win without the unlikely Olaf win it still gives around 140$. But as I said, its for the excitement only.

[Lb-kid]

Good example!

I also seldom go with more than one underdog but here looking at the lines and the estimated chances I'll try to stress my luck a little bit more this time.

I also have this feeling like you about Suloev and Misaki but had to make a choice and I'm already taking chances by placing bets on 3 underdogs. I can't even really explain my choice of Chonan, most of the times I try to use knowledge and common sense but sometimes I act on instinct like in Chonans case. But I stand pretty much alone compared to most other guys picks of Villasenor in this forum.

But we have same bets on Suloev, Ninja and Olaf so I can wish you luck for these fights wholeheartedly. :thumb:

[seese]

Good example!

I also seldom go with more than one underdog but here looking at the lines and the estimated chances I'll try to stress my luck a little bit more this time.

I also have this feeling like you about Suloev and Misaki but had to make a choice and I'm already taking chances by placing bets on 3 underdogs. I can't even really explain my choice of Chonan, most of the times I try to use knowledge and common sense but sometimes I act on instinct like in Chonans case. But I stand pretty much alone compared to most other guys picks of Villasenor in this forum.

But we have same bets on Suloev, Ninja and Olaf so I can wish you luck for these fights wholeheartedly. :thumb:

Hehe, yeah. I want them to win too.

I agree with you on Chonan, its a really hard pick. A year ago, after that stunning leglock against Silva, I would have picked Chonan against almost any guy. But from that point he has failed to impress me. And picking up two straight losses in Pride by knockout. So my "feeling" is that hes off his roll.