Best choice to fight Saku in the 2nd round

[RedHawk]

Saku was in great shape after the first round and his KO win over Sik. Looking at the competition in the 2nd round and as strange as it might sound,


I think that Arona would be the best choice to fight Saku.


Although Arona has been working on his strikes, he's still not as big of a KO threat as most of the other fighters. Silva, Shogun, Igor, Alistair, Lil Nog and even Saku are all more dangerous strikers than Arona.

Arona is good at controlling his opponent on the ground. Not all that great at submissions (for a black belt).

The fight would most likely go to a decision. If Saku could stay busier than Arona, I think he could get the decision win. IMO, it's the best chance for him advancing to the next round as styles make fights. I think Saku would look good vs Arona.

Do you think there's a better match for Saku in the next round?

One that would favor him advancing into the finals?

[Toffa]

Well I guess it depends on what you want to happen. In my opinion Arona is more dangerous standing than Nakamura. If Sak wins his second round match there is a high probability he will be totally destroyed in the next round. Therefore, I want him to fight Arona (where imo he will lose a fairly wide decision) rather than fight Nakamura and imo beat him.

[Water]

I actually agree with RedHawk...I think Saku's best chance is against Arona.
Nakamura improved on his striking as well training with Rizzo. The only reason Arona's striking looked so good was because it was against Lister. I would like to see a Saku/Arona 2nd round match up. I think Saku would win by an entertaining decision. Arone hasn't impressed me at all, honestly so I wouldnt put my money on him.

[Grant Ellis]

I think his best matchup would be someone he can takedown and control from the top position.

[Toffa]

I think his best matchup would be someone he can takedown and control from the top position.

Doesnt sound like Arona, imo anyway.

[brazilianshiva]

I think Alistair would be the ‘best’ match-up to Saku. Arona would take Saku down and would control him for three rounds. Arona is way much stronger than Saku I think. Arona is great at BJJ and he doesn’t go to submissions very much because he is from a very tactical BJJ school: he is a master of positioning and controlling but he knows how to submit someone.

[heckyl]

there is no easy match for him in the next round, but i think Arona would be his best shot, due to his past success against BJJ guys.

[Shinobu]

I actually agree with RedHawk...I think Saku's best chance is against Arona.
Nakamura improved on his striking as well training with Rizzo. The only reason Arona's striking looked so good was because it was against Lister. I would like to see a Saku/Arona 2nd round match up. I think Saku would win by an entertaining decision. Arone hasn't impressed me at all, honestly so I wouldnt put my money on him.
Well I think his striking didn't look too hot vs Lister it's just that Lister's stand up looked even worse. But those leg kicks...if Arona learns to utilise them more this could be a lethal weapon, they are mighty powerful and as opposed to a striker Arona doesn't mind to be taken down that much. If one of these leg kicks hits Saku's leg/knee area I would really fear for Sak's health-I think that would put him out of the sport for good. So no for Arona.
I still think Sak has a decent chance vs Igor. I think he is still slick/fast enough to take Igor down and while Igor has really improved in the grappling department (though he mainly manhandled Kondo due to size) I think Saku could pull out a dec. win. Plus it would have that grudge/rematch angle and both guys are favorites from old times-this would be a killer headliner fight imo.

[RedHawk]

A quick look at the fighter's records.

Igor

45 - 7 - 1

38 of 45 wins coming by way of TKO, KO or Sub

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Alistair Overeem

20 - 5 - 0

20 of 20 wins coming by way of TKO, KO or Sub

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Mauricio Rua

9-1

9 of 9 wins coming by way of TKO, KO or Sub

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Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

11 - 1

5 of 11 wins by way of TKO, KO or Sub
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I'm not even going to list Silva's ratio, as I really don't want to see Saku fight Silva at this point. Same goes for Naka. Really don't want to see Saku fight Naka.
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Ricardo Arona

10 - 2

3 of 10 wins way of TKO, KO or Sub
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These numbers speak for themselves. Coupled with the fact that 4 of 8 decisions that Arona won were split. (some highly contested to this day)

[RedHawk]

I think his best matchup would be someone he can takedown and control from the top position.


Who might that be?

[majorcunningham]

i thought about the sak situation and came up with exactly the same opinion; sak v arona.

arona is very unlikely to stop sak, which at this time of decline in sak's career, should be the main focus of his match-making imo. he could even beat arona, we never know with sak. that's the fun about him.

sak v arona is the best all-round option for pride imo

[Shinobu]

A quick look at the fighter's records.
...

These numbers speak for themselves. Coupled with the fact that 4 of 8 decisions that Arona won were split. (some highly contested to this day)
I'm not a big fan of comparing numbers to eveluate a fighter's worth. You can't really compare Alistair's and Arona's statistics for instance. While Arona has some questionable dec. wins, his loss to (arguably the best HW) Fedor is debatable as well. Plus he competed against some of the best in the sport. Alistair on the other hand has faced a lot of B-level fighters in his career.
I don't think a fight vs Arona would be "easy" or "easier", that guy is build almost like Randleman (against whom Sak struggled, regardless of the outcome) with excellent ground skills and powerfull low kicks-that just spells trouble for Sak imo.

[brazilianshiva]

A quick look at the fighter's records.

...

These numbers speak for themselves. Coupled with the fact that 4 of 8 decisions that Arona won were split. (some highly contested to this day)

Actually the numbers don't say much. If you remember for example that Igor has almost no wins against top 20. Igor lost to almost all top 20 he faced (Sperry, CC, Rampage, Tra, Heath, Coleman). And as it was pointed before, Arona lost to Fedor a very close fight (it is true Rings rules are different and Fedor was 'limited' in what he does better: GNP, but it was incredible how Arona took Fedor down at will). Arona is without any doubts top 3 in Pride LHW, probably second in this division and actually is a top contender for winning the GP. I think Saku would have better chances against Alistair.

[Eric Persson]

Sakuraba doesnt HAVE a good matchup anymore. He was fed the tomatocan in the first round, there are not anymore left.

[mugen67]

Well I guess it depends on what you want to happen. In my opinion Arona is more dangerous standing than Nakamura. If Sak wins his second round match there is a high probability he will be totally destroyed in the next round. Therefore, I want him to fight Arona (where imo he will lose a fairly wide decision) rather than fight Nakamura and imo beat him.

I think Nakamura is a better striker than Arona, his striking has came along very well coming from a pure judo background. Arona is not a good striker at all, he has pretty good low kicks but that's about it, not to mention that he always leaves his chin up in the air in such a way that he is really inviting his opponent to KO him.

I don't think Sakuraba would beat Nakamura, Nak would probably KO him or win a decision, Sak will probably not be able to take him down, he won't outstrike him and I doubt he will be able to sub him from his back. Even if he gets a takedown I still don't see him winning.

I don't think he will beat Arona either, maybe he will have a chance standing against him, but Arona's leg kicks might give Saku's injured legs some problems.

[RedHawk]

I'm not a big fan of comparing numbers to eveluate a fighter's worth.

I understand what you're saying. I'm not trying to discredit Arona or any other fighter. But the truth is you CAN judge a fighter by their stats. The stats above show one thing. Arona has trouble finishing his opponents with strikes and submissions. His TKO/KO/Sub ratio is the lowest of the group.

On a side note, Alistair and Shogun have never won a fight by decision. All of their wins have been via TKO/KO/Sub. That's pretty impressive and makes them more dangerous, IMO.





ShinobuI don't think a fight vs Arona would be "easy" or "easier",


Ah, I never said the fight would be easy. Nor did I say that Saku would win. All I'm saying is that among the remaining opponents, I feel Saku's best chance to advance to the next round is through Arona. Even if Saku loses to Arona, it will probably be by decision (as that's been the case with Arona's fight's more than 70% of the time) and not by KO or submission.


Arona is regarded by many (including myself) as a top ten MW fighter. If Saku would fight and lose to him (by decision) it wouldn't hurt Saku's public image at all (IMO). (He fought a top ten and came up short)

But since the fight has a good chance of going the full distance and the judges would decide the winner, Saku could do well enough to pull out a decision win. I mean, it could very well happen.

So you see, it's a win - win situation for Saku.


Fights Arona and loses a decision = no shame in that

Fights Arona and wins a decision = selling tickets in the finals


Fights another opponent and loses by KO or Submission = ?

[Fozzy]

man... i dont see sak doing well against arona, i mean come on. sak isn't gonna ko arona, be realistic. and on the ground, i'm pretty sure arona would manhandle sak, just because he's so much stronger, and more skilled on the ground.

sak/nak = "best" matchup for sak, IMO...

~Foz

[Grant Ellis]

Am I the only one who thinks Arona is a terrible matchup for Sakuraba?

Arona and Couture probably have the best takedowns at that weight. Arona will take Sakuraba down and hold him down from the top position.

Sakuraba is not going to "catch" a guy that noone else could. Sure, a submission can happen at anytime, but the BEST the world has to offer in submission grappling has already fought Arona and lost in both ADCC and PRIDE.

Arona hits a lot harder than Sakuraba.
In the words of Quinton Jackson:
"Sakuraba hits like a bitch."
"Arona gave me some hard leg kick, I am going to feel these for the next few weeks."

Now, Sakuraba is always dangerous, and you never know what will happen in his fights, so he always has a chance... but not a very good one.

[Fozzy]

I just said in my earlier post, i see sak being controlled, arona is way too big, like arona controlled lister, and lister is WAY bigger than sak, with arguably better ground skills too.

Arona would lay on sak, try and sub him (which mighten work), and then etch out a victory.

bad matchup for sak... but then again, i picked randleman to lay on sak and control him, and he did until he got armbarred, but arona isnt gonna get caught in something that easy...

sak/nak = best matchup by FAR for saku.

and now its... 1:57am, and i need sleep. zZz

~Foz

[Grant Ellis]

Maybe someone will drop and they will let Sakuraba KO the Korean judoka again.

[migs]

Arona for sure. If not Arona, than Nakamura.

[( o Y o )]

I really can`t see Saku doing much against Arona but be controlled and eating several big lowkicks, further messing his knees perhaps.

[RedHawk]

Glad to see Pride took my advise. :)



Now watch Arona make a complete asz out of me and KO Sakuraba. :(

[RedHawk]

I really can`t see Saku doing much against Arona but be controlled and eating several big lowkicks, further messing his knees perhaps.


I see a way of Saku winning. Arona is wide open for low left leg kicks. He drops his left hand and leaves his chin up, leaving him wide open for an overhand right. When he comes in for a takedown, sometimes his head is vunerable to guillotine. If you wrap his legs after grabbing his neck, he wont be able to get out as easily.


Also, the #1 way I see to beat Arona is to make him fight at a faster pace than he's used to fighting at. Arona only throws one and two strike combos. Especially after the first round. If someone was to apply steady, fast pace pressure, Arona would gas and be an easy target for KO. (IMO)

(think back to the Metzger fight. The pace was fast and Arona was in serious trouble)

Low left kicks would slow his huge right kicks down. His stance is wide and he leaves the left leg out too far in front. A quick kick to the inside of his left shin, then circle to your right.

Obviously, this is not going to be an easy job, but those are the only holes I see in Arona's game. He's a solid fighter that will be hard to beat. But as we all know, EVERYONE can be beat.